A Recession is on the Horizon

The impact of Trump’s trade war with China is frighteningly close.

Much of America has yet to feel the effects of the 145% tariffs on China, but that is about to change.

The last ships loaded in China before the tariffs took effect will reach American ports over the next four weeks.

Seattle cargo shipments are already down 60 percent.

Los Angeles will see the last ships dock, possibly today. Business from China accounts for 45% of the Port of Los Angeles’s portfolio, the most significant share of any US port.

The number of containers arriving at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop by more than 35 percent. Because of the low volume, one-quarter of the ships scheduled for May have been canceled.

Without that volume, there will be less demand for workers. We may not see massive layoffs at the ports, but truckers, who typically haul four or five containers weekly, will most likely haul only two or three a week. This will be the same for warehouse employees. It isn’t just truckers and warehouse employees. UPS has announced it will be laying off 20,000 workers this year.

The next port affected is Houston, where the last ships will dock in about two weeks. The last ships from China will dock in New York in about one month.

Analysts expect empty shelves, higher prices, and layoffs to become a reality in the US within weeks.